UNIVERSALISATION
OF SECONDARY EDUCATION: CAN IT BE ACHIEVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE
ARUN C. MEHTA
Fellow
National
Institute of Educational Planning and Administration (NIEPA)
17-B, Sri
Aurobindo Marg, New Delhi -110016 (INDIA)
(E-mail: arunmehta@niepa.org)
INTRODUCTION
Ever since the
Constitution was adopted in 1950, the focus of educational programmes was
concentrated on elementary education. Since the constitutional commitment is
free and compulsory education to all children up to the age fourteen, all
efforts were focused on achieving the goal of universal elementary
education. But despite significant
progress in every sphere of elementary education, the goal to achieve universal
elementary enrolment is still a far distant dream. Within elementary education, primary education remained in the
focus all through since the independence.
Even, the coverage of District Primary Education Programme (DPEP)
is also limited to the primary level only.
However, it is upper primary education, which is now getting attention
of the planners and policy makers. The
DPEP is now being extended to the upper primary level initially in the phase
one 52 districts. Sporadic attempts have been made in the past to consider both
primary and upper primary education as one component. The Bihar Education
Project and the World Bank Uttar Pradesh Basic Education Project considered
the entire elementary education as one unit.
The new initiative, namely the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) also
envisages the entire elementary education as one component. The Government recently constituted a task
force on secondary education. Otherwise secondary education had never been in
the focus and all the activities were concentrated on elementary education.
Even there is now mention of Universalisation of Secondary Education.
Like other levels of school education, a significant progress is also
made in all spheres of secondary education. More than 84 per cent habitations
in 1993-94 had a secondary school/section within a distance of 8 km as compared
to 70 per cent within 5 km. The number
of unserved habitations declined from 21 per cent in 1986-87 to 15 per cent in
1993-94. During 1950-51 to 1999-2000, number
of secondary & higher secondary schools increased from 7 thousand to 117 thousand. The increase (16 times) is much more rapid
than the corresponding increase in primary (3 times) and upper primary (14
times) schools. In the latest decade
(1990 to 99), more than 37 thousand secondary & higher secondary schools
were opened. The ratio of upper primary to secondary schools also improved from
1.83 in 1950-51 to 1.69 in 1999-2000.
The number of
secondary & higher secondary teachers increased from 127 thousand in
1950-51 to 1,720 thousand in 1999-2000.
Despite increase in number of teachers, pupil-teacher ratio increased
from 21:1 in 1950-51 to 32:1 in 1999-2000; thus indicating significant increase
in enrolment at this level. From a low
1.5 million in 1950-51, it has now been increased by more than 19 times to 28.2
million in 1999-2000. The percentage of
girl’s enrolment during the same period increased from 13 per cent to about 38
per cent. Enrolment in secondary & higher secondary level increased by
almost double the rate than the increase in primary enrolment. The Gross Enrolment Ratio, though low but
improved from 19.3 per cent in 1990-91 to 30.0 per cent in 1993-94 and further
to 41.2 per cent in 1998-99. Almost 50
per cent children of age group 14-17 years were attending schools in
1995-96. Retention rate (I to IX) is also
improved but still it is low at 27 per cent. Transition rate from upper primary
to secondary level is as high as 83 per cent.
Like
enrolment and teachers, facilities in secondary schools over time have also
improved impressively. The majority of
secondary schools have now got school buildings (69 per cent). The average
number of instructional rooms in a secondary school is as high as 8. More schools have got drinking water (41 per
cent), urinal (77 per cent) and
lavatory (57 per cent) facilities. More than 63 per cent schools have got
furniture for teachers and almost the same percentage science
laboratories. The plan allocation on
secondary education increased from Rs. 20 crore during the First Plan to more
than Rs. 2,600 crore in the Ninth Plan. However, expenditure on secondary
education always remained below one per cent of the GDP.
Like secondary
level, impressive progress has also been made both at the primary and upper
primary levels of education. But
despite all these significant achievements, the goal of universal elementary
education (UEE) still remains far out of the sight without which the goal of
universal secondary education also cannot be achieved.
THE PRESENT ARTICLE
An attempt has been made in
the present article to project enrolment in secondary classes. By using five
alternatives, enrolment in Grade IX and total secondary enrolment (Grades IX-X)
has been projected up to the year 2015. The existing set of enrolment
projections (Mehta, 1998 & Varghese & Mehta, 1999) have been extensively
used in projecting secondary enrolment. Attempt has also been made to analyze
implications of UEE on secondary education in terms of enrolment. Needless to
mention that secondary education cannot be expanded unless upper primary
education system sends adequate number of elementary graduates to the secondary
level. Once the students complete
elementary education, they are expected to transit to secondary level. Attempt
has also been made in the present article to see how students transact between
secondary classes. For this purpose, transition rate from upper primary to
secondary level and between secondary grades have been computed and
analyzed. Trends in enrolment from
primary to secondary level are also analyzed for which a long time series is
constructed. The following five alternatives have been used to project
enrolment in secondary classes:
|
·
Alternative I: In Proportion of Grade VIII to total upper
primary enrolment
·
Alternative II: UEE, if achieved by 2010
·
Alternative III: Based on past growth rates
·
Alternative IV: Grade IX enrolment in relation to enrolment in
Grade I; and
·
Alternative V: Universal Secondary Enrolment, if achieved by
2015 |
THE DATA
Though the
focus of the present article is on the secondary level, wherever necessary,
information pertaining to lower levels, such as, upper primary and primary
levels have also been presented and analyzed. However, analysis is confined
only to the all-India level only. The analysis presented and projections
undertaken in the present article are based on the publications of the NCERT
and MHRD. Education in India and Selected Educational Statistics of
the MHRD have been extensively utilized.
In addition, population projections provided by the Standing
Committee of Experts on Population Projections have also been used in
carrying out enrolment projections. Since the Standing Committee estimates are
based on the population data up to the 1991 Census, the same needs revision.
However, a cursory look at the projected and actual population for 2001 suggests
that the same may not change significantly because the deviation noticed
between the two estimates is not significant.
AGE-SPECIFIC CHILD POPULATION
The total
population of India in 1991 was 846 million increased at an annual rate of 1.95
per cent to 1,027 million in 2001 (against projected 1,012 million). A perusal of Table 1 reveals that
irrespective of age group, population is likely to increase during the period
1991-2001. However, the same trend may
not continue during the following decade i.e. 2001-2011 as the population in
age groups 6-11, 11-14 and 14-16 years would start decline. However, population of age group 16-18 years
is expected to increase marginally. The decline in population (6-11 years)
indicates comparatively a lower clientele in 2011 than it was in 1991. However, this may not minimize the
unfinished task of universal enrolment, as upper primary enrolment depends on
primary graduates and not on population of age group 11‑14 years. This is also true for secondary enrolment,
which depends on upper primary graduates and not on population of age group
14-16 years.
Table 1
Age-specific Child Population: 1991-2016
(Figures in Million)
|
Age-group |
1991 |
2001 |
2011 |
2016 |
|
6-11
Boys
Girls
Total |
60.31
56.40
116.71 |
60.42
57.84
118.26 |
56.04
53.09
109.13 |
59.47
56.33
115.80 |
|
11-14
Boys
Girls
Total |
27.88
25.13
53.01 |
38.50
35.97
74.47 |
32.10
30.42
62.52 |
34.08
32.32
66.40 |
|
14-16
Boys
Girls
Total |
19.52
16.68
36.20 |
24.74
22.53
47.27 |
22.27
21.34
43.61 |
21.87
20.68
42.51 |
|
16-18
Boys
Girls
Total
Total Population |
14.71
12.99
27.70
846
|
23.50
20.95
44.45
1012
|
23.20
22.40
45.60
1179
|
21.26
20.12
41.38
1264 |
Source:
Expert Committee on Population Projections as reported in the Selected
Educational Statistics: 1999-2000, MHRD, Government of India, New Delhi, 2001.
During 1991-2001, child
population (age group 6-11 years) might have increased at the rate of 0.13 per
cent per annum (2001 Census figures are not yet available). The lower rate is due to decline in birth
rate during the same period. During
2001 to 2011, population of age group 6-11 years is expected to decline at an
annual rate of 0.80 per cent, all that supports a decline in the clientele
population. It is not only that
population of age group 6-11 years (during 2001-2011) would decline but its
share to total population is also expected to decline by more than 4.50
percentage points. Individually, age groups 6-11 and 11-14 years had 116.71 and
53.01 million population in 1991, which is 13.79 and 6.26 per cent of the total
population is now likely to decline to 9.25 and 5.30 per cent in 2011.
In 1991, there were about
1,670 million children of age group 6-14 years compared to 36.20 and 27.70
million respectively of the age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years. It is estimated that there would be about
193 and 172 million children of age group 6-14 years respectively in the years
2001 and 2011. Age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years had 63.90 million children in
1991, which might have increased to 91.77 million in 2001 but likely to decline
to 89.21 million in 2011. Individually, age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years would have
an estimated population of 47.27 and 44.45 million in 2001 and 43.61 and 45.60
million in 2011. The percentage share of 14-16 and 16-18 years to total
population, which was 4.28 and 3.27 per cent in 1991, projected to increase to
4.67 and 4.39 per cent in 2001 but decline to 3.70 and 3.86 per cent the
following decade. This indicates a growth of 2.70 and 4.84 per cent per annum
during 1991-2001 respectively in the age groups of 14-16 and 16-18 years. The projected single age ‘6’ population is
presented in Table 2.
Table 2
Projected Population, Age '6':
1991-2016
(Figures in Million)
|
Year
|
Boys
|
Girls
|
Total
|
|
1991
|
11.99
|
11.36
|
23.36
|
|
2001
|
12.13
|
11.76
|
23.89
|
|
2011
|
11.25
|
10.80
|
22.05
|
|
2016
|
11.94
|
11.46
|
23.39
|
Note: Projected on the basis
of share of age ‘6’ to total population (6-11 years)
in 1991 and projected 6-11 population in different years.
GROWTH
IN ENROLMENT
Enrolment during 1950-51 to
1999-2000 at different levels of school education is presented in Table 3. A
perusal of table reveals that irrespective of the level of education, enrolment
has shown consistent and significant increase throughout the period 1950-51 to
1999-2000. This is also true for girl’s enrolment, which has increased at much
faster rate than increase in boy’s enrolment. Enrolment at the primary level
increased from 19.2 million in 1950-51 to 97.4 million in 1990-91 and further
to 113.6 million in 1999-2000. This
shows that the same is increased by more than six times in a period of about
fifty years. The girl’s enrolment during the same period increased from 5.4
million in 1950-51 to 49.5 million in 1999-2000. In percentage terms, share of
girl’s enrolment increased from 28.13 per cent in 1950-51
to 41.48 per cent in 1991
and further to 43.58 per cent in 1999-2000. The share of girl’s enrolment at
upper primary and high/higher secondary level increased from 16.13 to 40.38 per
cent and 13.33 to 38.99 per cent during the same period. In the latest decade (1991 to 2000), enrolment
at the primary
level
increased at a rate of 1.72 per cent compared to 2.40 and 4.43 per cent
increase in upper primary and high & higher secondary enrolment.
Table 3
Growth in Enrolment: 1950-51
to 1999
(Figures in Million)
|
Year
|
Primary
|
Upper
Primary |
High/Hr.
Secondary |
|
|
Girls |
Total |
% Girls |
Girls |
Total |
% Girls |
Girls |
Total |
% Girls |
|
1951 |
5.4 |
19.2 |
28.13 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
16.13 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
13.33 |
|
1961 |
11.4 |
35.0 |
32.57 |
1.6 |
6.7 |
23.88 |
0.7 |
3.4 |
20.59 |
|
1971 |
21.3 |
57.0 |
37.37 |
3.9 |
13.3 |
29.32 |
1.9 |
7.6 |
25.00 |
|
1981 |
28.5 |
73.8 |
38.62 |
6.8 |
20.7 |
32.85 |
3.4 |
11.0 |
30.91 |
|
1991 |
40.4 |
97.4 |
41.48 |
12.5 |
34.0 |
36.76 |
6.3 |
19.1 |
32.98 |
|
1998 |
48.2 |
110.9 |
43.46 |
16.3 |
40.3 |
40.45 |
10.5 |
27.8 |
37.77 |
|
1999 |
49.5 |
113.6 |
43.58 |
17.0 |
42.1 |
40.38 |
11.0 |
28.2 |
38.99 |
|
Rate of Growth
1951-1999
1991-2000 |
4.63
2.29 |
3.72
1.72 |
-
- |
7.46
3.48 |
5.57
2.40 |
-
- |
8.52
6.39 |
6.17
4.43
|
-
- |
Source: Selected Educational
Statistics: 1999-2000, MHRD, 2001. The author has calculated the growth rates
Compared to
primary and upper primary levels, enrolment at the secondary & higher
secondary level initially had a low enrolment base. In 1950-51, total enrolment
in secondary & higher secondary classes was only 1.5 million of which girls
constituted 13.33 per cent or 0.2 million in absolute terms. During 1991-2000, the same increased at the
rate of 4.43 per cent per annum, which is more than double the increase in
upper primary enrolment. During 1950-51 to 1999-2000, girls and overall
secondary & higher secondary enrolment increased by more than 55 and 19
times This shows average growth of 8.52 and 6.17 per cent per annum which is
higher than the corresponding growth in enrolment at other levels of school
education.
Table 4
Gross Enrolment Ratio: 1950-51 to 1999-2000
|
Year
|
Primary
(Grades
I-V, 6-11 Years) |
Upper
Primary
(Grades
VI-VIII, 11-14 Years) |
High/Hr.
Secondary
(Grades
IX-XII, 14-17 Years) |
|
Boys |
Girls |
Total |
Boys |
Girls |
Total |
Total |
|
1950-51 |
60.6 |
24.8 |
42.6 |
20.6 |
4.6 |
12.7 |
NA |
|
1960-61 |
82.6 |
41.4 |
62.4 |
33.2 |
11.3 |
22.5 |
10.6 |
|
1970-71 |
95.5 |
60.5 |
78.6 |
46.5 |
20.8 |
33.4 |
19.0 |
|
1980-81 |
95.8 |
64.1 |
80.5 |
54.3 |
28.6 |
41.9 |
17.3 |
|
1990-91 |
114.0 |
85.5 |
100.4 |
76.6 |
47.0 |
62.1 |
19.3 |
|
1998-99* |
100.9 |
82.9 |
92.1 |
65.3 |
49.1 |
57.6 |
30.8** |
|
1999-2000 |
104.1 |
85.2 |
94.9 |
67.2 |
49.7 |
58.8 |
30.0*** |
*Provisional
thereafter, ** 1992-93, *** 1993-94
Source:
Selected Educational Statistics: 1999-2000, MHRD, 2001 & Education in
India: 1992-93 & 1993-94, MHRD, New Delhi.
A perusal of Table 4 reveals
that Gross Enrolment Ratio between the period 1950-51 to 1999-2000 improved
significantly but the same is not adequate to attain the status of universal
enrolment. As against GER of 100.4 and 62.1 per cent in 1990 at the primary and
upper primary level, the corresponding ratio in 1999-2000 was 94.90 and 58.80
per cent. Compared to primary and upper primary levels, GER at high &
higher secondary level is quite low. In
1990-91, it was only 19.3 per cent but improved to 30.0 per cent in
1993-94. For the latest year, the same
is estimated to be around 41 per cent. The NSSO data indicates a Gross
Attendance Ratio of 51 and 32 per cent respectively in the classes IX-X and
XI-XII. Within these classes, a significant differential is noticed between
boy/girl and rural/urban areas. The Net
Attendance Ratio was low at 26 and 15 per cent respectively in the classes IX-X
and XI-XII. This suggests that the majority of children of age groups 14-17 and
18-24 year in 1995-96 were not attending schools. The Age-specific Attendance
Ratio was only 50 per cent; suggesting that 50 per cent of the population of
age group 14-17 year were not attending schools and those who were attending
may not necessarily be in the secondary classes.
REDEFINING UNIVERSALISATION
The analysis presented above
reveals that at all levels of school education, a significant progress in
enrolment is achieved but a large number of children still remain out of the
school (the estimated number in 1999-2000 was about 67 million/6-14 years,
Mehta, 2002). Unless these children are
brought under the education system, the goal of universal elementary education
cannot be achieved.
It may
however be noted that without attaining the status of universal primary
enrolment, the goal of universal elementary education too cannot be
achieved. Primary enrolment depends on
6-11 years population but the same is not true in case of the upper primary
enrolment. Upper primary enrolment is
not only a function of 11-14 year population but also is a function of primary
graduates. Only primary graduates can be admitted in upper primary classes. It
is quite possible that many children of 11-14 year are out of the system and
there may also be dropped out children and a few of them may still be in
primary classes. Without bringing these children to schools, the goal of
universal elementary education cannot be cherished. The upper primary level of
education cannot be expanded in isolation of the primary level. This is also
true for secondary level, which cannot be expanded independent of upper primary
level. All children of age group 14-16
year cannot be enrolled in Classes IX-X unless the goal of universal elementary
education is achieved. Many children of this age group may still be in primary
or upper primary classes or may even be out of the school.
Thus, availability of
graduates' (primary and upper primary)
along with transition from primary to
upper primary and upper primary to secondary level would decide the future
expansion of upper primary and secondary levels of education. Further expansion
of primary education and high transition from primary to upper primary level
will generate more intensive demand for upper primary education to expand. Once the goal of universal elementary
enrolment is realised, secondary level may then expect to receive a quantum
jump in enrolment. This may happen in year 2010, if the goal of newly launched
Sarva
Shiksha Abhiyan is realised in that year.
TRANSITION RATES
The inter‑stage
transition rates i.e. transition from Grade V, the terminal grade of primary to
Grade VI, the initial grade of upper primary education and transition from
terminal grade of upper primary level i.e. Grade VIII to Grade IX, the initial
Grade of secondary level are presented in Table 5. A close scrutiny of Table 5
reveals that transition rate from primary to upper primary level has been
reasonably high to start with and improved consistently. In 1998-99, transition
rate from primary to upper primary level was 93.37 per cent with boy/girl
differential only 5 per cent. Similarly, transition from upper primary to
secondary level also remained high throughout the period 1970-71 to
1998-99. In the latest year 1998-99, it
is as high as 82.95 per cent with negligible boy/girl differential. The relatively high transition from primary
to upper primary level and low gender differences suggest that unless the
efficiency of primary education system is improved, the goal of universal
elementary education cannot be realized. The efficiency of primary education
system has direct impact on upper primary and secondary education system to
expand. An inefficient primary
education system will continue to send fewer primary graduates to the upper
primary level.
Table 5
Transition Rates: 1970-71 to 1998-99
|
YEAR
|
Grade V/VI
|
Grade VIII/IX
|
|
BOYS
|
GIRLS
|
TOTAL
|
BOYS
|
GIRLS
|
TOTAL
|
|
1970-71
1980-81 |
86.80
92.11 |
74.08
81.77 |
82.56
88.35 |
-
88.58 |
-
83.16 |
-
86.89 |
|
1981-82 |
93.77 |
86.41 |
91.10 |
88.67 |
81.67 |
86.47 |
|
1982-83 |
95.11 |
87.18 |
92.22 |
85.95 |
79.72 |
83.92 |
|
1983-84 |
92.89 |
86.71 |
90.62 |
86.14 |
81.56 |
84.64 |
|
1984-85 |
91.90 |
86.84 |
90.02 |
88.24 |
83.55 |
86.69 |
|
1985-86 |
90.79 |
82.01 |
87.45 |
83.93 |
79.02 |
82.28 |
|
1986-87 |
93.61 |
85.49 |
90.50 |
87.63 |
81.47 |
85.55 |
|
1987-88 |
91.59 |
83.56 |
88.50 |
84.13 |
79.75 |
82.63 |
|
1988-89 |
94.48 |
84.15 |
90.45 |
85.67 |
82.67 |
84.65 |
|
1989-90 |
98.32 |
91.30 |
95.56 |
89.37 |
84.64 |
87.72 |
|
1990-91
1991-92
1997-98*
1998-99 |
95.20
87.00
89.00
95.59 |
93.22
83.00
91.00
90.33 |
94.42
85.00
86.00
93.37 |
84.93
79.30
86.34
83.15 |
79.56
70.49
82.64
82.66 |
83.01
76.05
84.89
82.95 |
*: Provisional thereafter
Source: Varghese & Mehta (1999),
1997-98 onwards computed by the
author.
The transition between
secondary and higher secondary grades (Table 6) reveals that majority of children
transit from Grade IX to Grade X but the same is not true in case of promotion
from Grade X to XI and Grade XI to XII. It has also been noticed that more
girls transit from Grade IX to X and also from Grade X to XI. The promotion rate from Grade IX to X in
1998-99 was as high as 86.68 per cent (Boys 85.13 and Girls 89.19 per
cent). However, only 44.29 per cent
children transited from Grade X to XI; thus contributing a lot to wastage in
the system. On the other hand, majority of children transited from Grade XI to
XII (95.52 per cent). Here again, more girls transited from Grade XI to XII
than their boy’s counterparts. The low
transition from Grade X to XI has serious implications for universalisation of
senior secondary education.
Table 6
Grade-to-Grade
Transition Rates between Secondary
& Higher Secondary
Grades
|
Year |
Sex
|
IX to X |
X to XI |
XI to XII |
|
1990-91 |
Boys
|
87.13 |
- |
- |
|
|
Girls |
89.56 |
- |
- |
|
|
Total |
87.95 |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1991-92 |
Boys |
84.32 |
- |
- |
|
|
Girls |
81.74 |
- |
- |
|
|
Total |
83.44 |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1997-98 |
Boys |
87.39 |
43.28 |
94.10 |
|
|
Girls |
90.66 |
44.22 |
93.79 |
|
|
Total |
88.62 |
43.63 |
93.98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998-99 |
Boys |
85.13 |
43.19 |
93.82 |
|
|
Girls |
89.19 |
46.06 |
98.30 |
|
|
Total |
86.68 |
44.29 |
95.52 |
Source: Calculated by the author based on the
MHRD data.
ENROLMENT PROJECTIONS
The techniques of enrolment
projections can broadly be divided into two groups, namely, mathematical and
analytical techniques. Mathematical
methods assume that past trend in enrolment would continue in the future. On
the other hand, analytical techniques (based on `student cohort' analysis)
takes into account the demographic pressures on education. In the absence of the latest grade-specific
enrolment, it is not possible to undertake analytical methods. Recently, Mehta
(1998) projected enrolment both at the primary and upper primary levels of
education by using trend and cohort analysis. In addition, Varghese & Mehta
(1999) also projected enrolment in upper primary classes by using a set of
alternatives.
Table 7
Projected Enrolment: Primary
Classes I-V
(Figures in
Million)
|
Year |
Alternative
Scenarios |
|
I |
II |
III |
IV |
|
Boys |
Girls |
Boys |
Girls |
Boys |
Girls |
Boys |
Girls |
|
2000-01 |
63.21 |
49.28 |
62.34 |
51.67 |
60.28 |
49.73 |
51.58 |
47.18 |
|
2005-06 |
62.27 |
50.92 |
60.43 |
51.98 |
53.67 |
48.33 |
53.47 |
48.32 |
|
2007-08 |
61.87 |
51.63 |
59.96 |
52.10 |
54.48 |
48.82 |
54.15 |
48.81 |
|
2008-09 |
61.69 |
52.01 |
59.84 |
52.16 |
54.49 |
48.90 |
54.18 |
48.90 |
Source: EFA in India:
Enrolment Projections by Arun C. Mehta, NIEPA and
Vikas, 1998, New Delhi.
Note : The projections should be examined in the
light of period of the data, which has been used.
(a) Primary & Upper Primary Level
By using Grade Transition
method, Mehta (1998) used four alternative scenarios to project enrolment in
primary classes. The projected figures are presented in Table 7. Varghese &
Mehta (1999) projected upper primary enrolment on the basis of projected
primary enrolment and percentage of upper primary to total primary enrolment.
In the second alternative, trend analysis was carried-out to project upper
primary enrolment. In the third
alternative, enrolment was projected on the basis of growth rates. As an
alternative to first three, in the last alternative, upper primary enrolment
was projected on the basis of percentage share of Grade V enrolment to the
total primary enrolment. The projections based upon the third and fourth
alternatives were noticed to be close both in 2002‑03 and 2008‑09
(Table 7). The projected enrolment in
upper primary classes is presented in Table 8.
Table 8
Projected Enrolment: Upper Primary Classes, VI-VIII
(Different
Alternatives)
(Figures in Million)
Alternatives
|
2002-03 |
2008-09 |
|
|
Enrolment |
Enrolment
Rate
|
Enrolment |
Enrolment
Rate
|
|
|
|
I |
45.25
|
63.41
|
52.18
|
81.76
|
|
|
II |
54.96
|
77.02
|
68.4
|
107.18
|
|
|
III |
50.23
|
70.39
|
60.16
|
94.27
|
|
|
IV |
50.02
|
70.1
|
63.04
|
98.78
|
|
|
Age‑specific
Population 11‑14 Years |
71.36
|
63.82 |
|
Source: Varghese & Mehta (1999),
Universalisation of Upper Primary: Education in India: An
Analysis of Present Status and Future Requirements,
NIEPA, New Delhi.
(b) Secondary Level
Since the
grade-specific enrolment at the upper primary level is not projected, it is not
an easy task to project enrolment in secondary classes. Nor the Grade
Transition Method can be applied because of the data that is not available.
Second, the method is best applicable to project enrolment in primary classes
only. Lastly, because of the changes in the definition of universalisation, the
same is not appropriate to apply both at the upper primary and secondary levels
of education. Therefore, various alternatives are tried to project enrolment in
secondary classes details of which are presented below.
Alternative
I: In Proportion of Grade VIII to Total Upper Primary Enrolment
In the
first alternative, percentage of Grade VIII enrolment to total upper primary
enrolment (Classes VI-VIII) in 1998-99 (provisional) is applied to projected
enrolment at the upper primary level to obtain enrolment in Grade VIII. At
present, the share of Grade VIII enrolment is 29.87 per cent. The transition rate from upper primary to
secondary level (84.89 per cent, Table 5) is then applied to projected Grade
VIII enrolment to obtain total enrolment in Grade IX, which is multiplied by
two to obtain total enrolment in secondary classes (all the Grade IX children
may not necessarily transit to Grade X, at present the rate is about 87 per
cent but in case of universalisation, it will further improve and will fast
approach hundred percent). This was applied to all the four scenarios developed
by Varghese & Mehta (Table 8) to obtain enrolment in secondary classes
(Classes IX & X). The projected figures are presented in Table 9.
Table 9
Projected Enrolment:
SECONDARY CLASSES*
(Different
Alternatives)
(Figures in Million)
|
Scenarios
|
Grade IX
|
Grades IX-X
|
|
2004-05
|
2010-11
|
2004-05
|
2010-11
|
|
I
|
11.47
|
13.23
|
22.94
|
26.46
|
|
II
|
13.94
|
17.34
|
27.88
|
34.68
|
|
III
|
12.81
|
15.25
|
25.62
|
30.50
|
|
IV
|
12.68
|
15.98
|
25.36
|
31.96
|
·
Based
on percentage of Grade VIII to total upper primary enrolment (29.87 per cent) and transition from upper
primary to secondary level (84.89 per cent) by assuming that all children of
age group 6-11 years will be enrolled in 2001/2007. Projected upper primary
enrolment is presented in Table 8.
The
projected figures presented in Table 9 reveals that enrolment in Grade IX in
2005 is expected between 11.47 million under Scenario I to 13.94 million under
Scenario II. Varghese & Mehta (1999) retained Scenario IV for projecting
financial requirements of universalizing upper primary education. According to this scenario, enrolment in
Grade IX is likely to be 12.68 million in 2005. It may however be noted that at present (1998-99) enrolment in
Grade X is only 9.90 million (Boys 6.12
& Girls 3.78 million). Thus, if UPE is achieved by 2001 and children
transit to upper primary level and then to Grade IX (the first grade of
secondary level), the system is expected to receive a quantum jump in enrolment
in year 2005. But since the universalisation has not yet been achieved (in
2001), this alternative is not retained for further analysis.
Alternatively,
if the UPE is achieved by 2007, enrolment in secondary classes can also be
projected accordingly. In 2007, it is
projected that there would be around 57.75 million boys & 54.94 million
girls of age group 6-11 years. At
present, transition rate from upper primary to secondary level is 84.89 per
cent and promotion rate from Grade IX to X, 88.62 per cent. These rates are
expected to further improve in case of universalisation in 2007. Therefore, by
assuming that all children in Grade IX will transit to Grade X and transition
rate from upper primary to secondary level improve to 90 per cent, enrolment in
Grades IX-X is projected. The projected enrolment in 2011 comes out to be 33.90
million (GER, 77.73 per cent); the corresponding enrolment in Grade IX would be
16.95 million. At present, the total enrolment in secondary classes is 18.45
million. UPE in 2007 thus would result into about 2-fold increase in secondary
enrolment in 2011 from its present level. In case, if no improvement takes
place in the existing rates, enrolment in secondary classes is alternatively
projected to be 31.96 million, as against 15.98 million in Grade IX in year
2011 (Table 9).
Alternative II: UEE, if
Achieved by 2010
The SSA envisages achieving
the goal of UEE by 2010 (MHRD, 2000). Therefore, under the Alternative II,
enrolment is projected by assuming that the goal of universal elementary
enrolment will be achieved by 2010. The projected population suggests that
there would be around 63.62 million children of age group 11-14 in 2010 (Table
10). The existing share
Table 10
Alternative II: Goal of UEE,
if Achieved by 2010
(In Million)
|
Assumptions |
Projected Enrolment |
|
Grade IX, 2010 |
Grades IX-X, 2012
|
|
(A) Improved Transition Rate from Upper
Primary to Secondary Level (90 per cent) |
17.10
(A & C) |
34.20
(A & C) |
|
(B) Constant Transition Rate (84.89%)
|
16.13
(B & C) |
32.26
(B & C) |
|
(C) Constant Share of Grade VIII to
Total Upper Primary Enrolment (29.87 per cent)
|
18.90
(B& D)
|
37.80
(B & D)
|
|
(D) Improved Share of Grade VIII to
Total Upper Primary Enrolment (35 per cent) |
20.04
(A & D)
|
40.08
(A & D)
|
|
Projected 11-14 Years Population in
year 2010, 63.62 Million |
of Grade VIII to total upper primary enrolment
(29.87 per cent) may further improve, if
dropout rates between upper primary classes decline. However, it may be noted that the existing
dropout rates are very low compared to dropout rates between primary classes.
It may also be noted that, repetition rates in upper primary classes is a bit
higher than the dropout rates. Therefore, no assumption is made on future share
of Grade VIII enrolment. It is assumed that it will remain constant at its
present value. In addition, universalisation of elementary education will
further improve transition from upper primary to secondary level (say about 90
per cent).
Thus, if the goal of
universal upper primary education is achieved by year 2010 and 90 per cent
children transit to the secondary level, it is estimated that enrolment in
Grade IX in year 2012 would be around 17.10 million (Table 10). In case, if no
improvement takes place in transition rate, the same would be around 16.13
million. In case, if both the
transition rate, as well as, the share of Grade VIII enrolment improves, Grade
IX enrolment is projected to be 20.04 million. Alternatively, if transition
rate remains constant but share of Grade IX improves to 35 per cent, projected
Grade IX enrolment comes out to be 18.90 million. Altogether, enrolment at the
secondary level under different assumptions is projected between 32.26 to 40.08
million in 2012. Thus, universalisation
in 2010 will result into a quantum jump in secondary enrolment from its present
level if both the transition, as well as, share of Grade VIII to total upper
primary enrolment improves slightly.
Alternative III: Based on Past Growth Rates
In addition
to above alternatives, using the recent growth rates, enrolment at the
secondary level is projected. For this purpose, both the MHRD and NCERT set of
enrolment data has been used. Needless to mention that projections based on
growth rates are crude in nature as neither neither the age-specific population
nor the elementary graduates are considered in projections. Second, once the goal of universal
elementary education is achieved, the growth rates will further improve to a
significant effect up to a certain period after which they will settle down.
However, they give reasonably enough indication about future size of enrolment.
(a) Based on the MHRD Data
By using
the growth rates between the periods 1988-89 to 1998-99, enrolment in secondary
classes is projected. During 1988-89 to 1998-99, enrolment in secondary classes
increased at the rate of 3.31, 5.54 and 4.10 per cent per annum respectively in
case of boys, girls and overall enrolment (Table 11). By assuming that the
growth rates will remain constant, it is projected that enrolment in secondary
classes would be around 23.49, 28.72 and 35.11 million respectively in the
years 2005, 2010 and 2015. This gives a GER of 51, 65 and 82 per cent in the
years 2005, 2010 and 2015. Table 11 further reveals a significant boy/girl
differential in the projected GER in 2005 and 2010. In 2015, the differential
is estimated to be around 7 percentage points.
Table 11
Projected Enrolment (Grades IX-X): Based on MHRD Data
(Figures in Million)
|
Year |
Boys |
Girls |
Total |
|
1988-89 |
8.23 |
4.12 |
12.34 |
|
1998-99 |
11.34 |
7.05 |
18.45
(41.17) |
|
Rate of Growth (%) |
3.31 |
5.54 |
4.10 |
|
2004-05 |
13.86
(58.43) |
9.75
(44.22) |
23.49
(51.32) |
|
2009-10 |
16.31
(72.49) |
12.76
(59.46) |
28.72
(65.33) |
|
2014-15 |
19.20
(87.51) |
16.71
(80.85) |
35.11
(82.13) |
Note: Projected GER is
presented in the parentheses.
In the present exercise,
enrolment in Grade IX is also projected by assuming that the past growth rates
in enrolment will continue. During 1988-89 to 1998-99, enrolment in Grade IX
increased at the rate of 2.72, 5.01 and 3.54 per cent per annum in case of
boys, girls and total enrolment. If the growth rates continue, it is projected
that enrolment in Grade IX would be around 12.20, 14.51 and 17.27 million respectively
in the years 2005, 2010 and 2015 (Table 12).
Table 12
Projected Enrolment
(Grade IX): Based on MHRD Data
(Figures in Million)
|
Year |
Boys |
Girls |
Total |
|
1988-89 |
4.68 |
2.31 |
6.99 |
|
1998-99 |
6.12 |
3.77 |
4.33 |
|
Rate of Growth (%) |
2.72 |
5.01 |
3.54 |
|
2004-05 |
7.19 |
5.06 |
12.20 |
|
2009-10 |
8.23 |
6.46 |
14.51 |
|
2014-15 |
9.41 |
8.26 |
17.27 |
(b) Based on the NCERT Data
It may be noticed that the
above projections are made by using the official set of enrolment data. In the past, a significant deviation in
enrolment is noticed between the MHRD and NCERT set of data (Mehta, 1996). It
may also be noticed that the official estimates of enrolment irrespective of a
survey (2nd to 6th) have been found overestimated compared to the all-India survey
estimates. Because of these reasons, an alternative is also tried to project
enrolment in secondary classes by using the data between the Fifth (1986-87)
and Sixth (1993-94) surveys.
Table 13
Projected
Enrolment (Grades IX-X): Based on NCERT Data
(Figures in
Million)
|
Year
|
Boys |
Girls |
Total |
|
1986-87
|
7.87 |
3.65 |
11.52 |
|
1993-94
|
9.67 |
5.55 |
15.22 |
|
Rate of
Growth (%) |
2.99 |
6.17 |
4.06 |
|
2004-05
|
13.37
(56.37) |
10.72
(48.62) |
23.58
(51.52) |
|
2009-10
|
15.49
(69.56) |
14.47
(67.43) |
28.77
(65.44) |
|
2014-15
|
17.43
(79.44) |
18.38
(88.33) |
33.74
(78.92) |
Note: Projected GER is presented in the parentheses.
During 1986-87 to 1993-94,
enrolment in secondary classes increased at an annual rate of 4.06 per cent.
The corresponding increase in case of boys and girls enrolment was 2.99 and
6.17 per cent (Table 13). It may be noticed that despite the different set and
period of data, the overall secondary enrolment increased almost at the same
rate of 4 per cent per annum. Also, in both the set of statistics, girls'
enrolment increased at a much faster rate than the increase in boys'
enrolment. This is because of the lower
girls’ enrolment in the base year. The
projected enrolment presented in the Table 13 reveals that enrolment in
secondary classes would be about 23.58, 28.77 and 33.74 million in 2005, 2010
and 2015. This gives a GER of 51.52, 65.49 and 78.92 per cent respectively in
the years 2005, 2010 and 2015.
Table 14
Projected Enrolment (Grade IX): Based on
NCERT Data
(Figures in Million)
|
Year
|
Boys
|
Girls
|
Total
|
|
1986-87
|
4.35
|
2.06
|
6.41
|
|
1993-94
|
5.33
|
3.10
|
8.43
|
|
Rate of
Growth (%) |
2.95
|
6.01
|
3.99
|
|
2004-05
|
7.33
|
5.89
|
12.97
|
|
2009-10
|
8.48
|
7.89
|
15.77
|
|
2014-15
|
9.52
|
9.97
|
18.44
|
By using the same set of
data, enrolment in Grade IX is also projected in years 2005, 2010 and 2015.
During 1986-87 to 1993-94, Grade IX enrolment increased at the rate of 3.99 per
cent per annum. Again, girls’ enrolment in Grade IX increased at a much faster rate (6.01 per cent)
than the increase in boys’ enrolment (2.95 per cent). The projected enrolment (Table 14) reveals that total enrolment
in Grade IX in 2005 would be around 12.97 million against the present 9.90
million. This is further likely to increase to 15.77 million in 2010 and to
18.44 million in the year 2015.
A glance at Tables 11 to 14
reveals that not much deviation is noticed between the projected secondary
enrolment based on the Official and NCERT set of data. As against the projected
enrolment of 23.49 million in 2005 based on the MHRD set of data, the
corresponding estimate based on the NCERT data comes out to be 23.58 million. Similarly, enrolment in 2010 is projected to
be 28.72 million (MHRD) and 28.77 million (NCERT). However, a gap of about 1.37 million is noticed between the two
estimates in year 2015. Quite similar trend is also noticed in case of the projected
Grade IX enrolment. As against, 12.20 million enrolment based on the MHRD data,
the corresponding enrolment in 2005 based on the NCERT data is 12.97
million. The projected Grade IX
enrolment in 2010 comes out to be 14.51 and 15.77 million respectively in case
of the MHRD and NCERT data sets. It may be noticed that the projected enrolment
in Grade IX under present alternative is close to earlier estimates presented
above.
Alternative IV: Enrolment in
Grade IX in Relation to Enrolment in Grade I
In the next alternative,
enrolment in secondary classes is projected on the basis of Grade IX enrolment
as a proportion of Grade I enrolment. For this purpose, first the ratio of
Grade IX to Grade I enrolment eight years back is calculated separately for
boys and girls. This requires grade wise enrolment over a period of time, which
is available from the Education in India (Volume I). But separate
enrolment in this publication is not available for Grades XI and XII. However,
the same is also available from one of the other publications of the MHRD,
namely, the Selected Educational Statistics. The transition rates as
well as the ratio of Grade IX to Grade I is presented in Tables 5, 6 & 15.
Table
15 reveals that only 37 per cent children those who had taken admission in
Grade I in 1990-91 managed to reach Grade IX in 1998-99. The corresponding
percentages for boys and girls in the same year were 39 and 33 percent; thus
showing a boy/girl differential of 6 percentage points. The trend in retention at the secondary
level further reveals that it has improved from a low 27 per cent in 1989-90 to
33 percent in 1992-93 and to 41 per cent in 1997-98 but decline to 37 per cent
the following year. The boy/girl differential in retention during the same
period also declined from 8 percentage points in 1989-90 to 6 percentage points
in 1998-99. It may also be noted that only 27 children could reach Grade X in
1992-93 out of 100 in Grade I in year 1983-84. This indicates that over 18
million children dropped out from the system in the process out of 25.55 million
enrolled in Grade I in 1983-84; thus contributing a lot of wastage in the
system.
In case, if the goal of
universal primary enrolment (as envisaged in SSA) is achieved by 2007, all
children of age ‘6’ would have to enrolled by 2002-03 and retain thereafter in
the system. It is assumed that the existing ratio of Grade IX to Grade I (37
per cent) will remain constant. The projected population shows that there would
be about 11.95 million boys and 11.57 million girls of age '6' in year 2002-03.
Accordingly, it is projected that there would be around 4.42 million (Boys) and
4.28 million (Girls) in Grade IX in year 2011.
Table 15
Ratio of Grade IX to Grade
I Enrolment Eight Years Back
|
Year |
Ratio of
Grade IX to I Enrolment |
|
Boys
|
Girls
|
Total
|
Boy/Girl Differential (%) |
|
1989-90 |
30 |
22 |
27 |
8 |
|
1990-91 |
35 |
26 |
31 |
8 |
|
1991-92 |
36 |
28 |
32 |
8 |
|
1992-93* |
37 |
28 |
33 (27.06) |
10 |
|
1997-98** |
45 |
36 |
41 |
9 |
|
1998-99 |
39 |
33 |
37 |
6 |
* In the parentheses ratio of Grade X to I is
presented.
** Provisional
thereafter.
The projected enrolment in
Grade IX (8.70 million) is found much lower than the actual enrolment in Grade
IX in the year 1998-99 (9.90 million). This may be because of the large number
of overage & underage children in Grade I. In 1998-99, the percentage of overage
& underage children in Grade I was around 30.80 per cent (Boys, 42.98 &
Girls 16.67 per cent). Thus, the projected population of age '6' in year
2002-03 is inflated by the corresponding percentage of overage & underage
children and enrolment in Grade IX is estimated. However, the percentage of
overage & underage children is expected to decline as we approach UPE.
Needless to mention that a slight change in age '6' population will
dramatically change the projected enrolment at the secondary level. The revised enrolment in 2011; thus comes
out to be 6.32 million (Boys), 4.99 million (Girls) and 11.37 million (Total).
The projected Grade IX enrolment is then multiplied by two to obtain enrolment
in Grades IX-X. There would be around
22.74 million enrolment in secondary classes in year 2012.
The
projected enrolment under the present alternative is found lower than the
earlier projections. This may be because of the ratio of Grade IX to I itself.
Earlier projections were independent of this ratio. Second, it has been assumed that the existing ratio (37 per cent)
will remain constant throughout the projection period, which may not remain
true in years that follow. Third, the
projections under the present alternative are independent of transition from
upper primary to secondary level. No
method is expected to produce reliable estimates of secondary enrolment unless
elementary graduates and transition rates are considered in projections. The same under the present alternative is
not possible to use. However, assuming that the percentage of Grade IX to Grade
I enrolment will improve each year by five percentage points to 42, 47 and 52
per cent respectively in the years 2012, 2013 and 2014, enrolment is projected. The projected enrolment in secondary classes
thus comes out to be 25.84, 28.92 and 32.00 million respectively in the years
2012, 2013 and 2014, which are close to the earlier projections. However
keeping in view the existing status of retention, it may not be an easy task to
improve the share of Class IX to Class I by 5 percentage points each year.
Scenario V: Universal
Secondary Enrolment if Achieved by 2015
If the goal of universal
secondary enrolment (Grades IX-X) is achieved by 2015, enrolment in Grade IX
can also be projected accordingly. But one has to first define the meaning of
universalizing secondary education. Universalizing secondary education means
that all children of age group 14-16 years are enrolled in secondary classes
(NER, 100 per cent); (ii) they remain in the system (retention rate, 100 per
cent); and (iii) transit to the first grade of the next education cycle.
However, initially it may not be possible to achieve hundred percent net
enrolment and retention in the secondary classes. This is more so specific
keeping in view the present status of elementary education in the country.
Even, in developing countries that have achieved the goal of universal
enrolment, it is not hundred percent. Then, what should be the goal in the Indian
context? May be it is 85, 90 or 95 per cent. Achieving universalisation of
secondary education in 2015; thus means that 85/90 per cent children those who
take admission in Grade I in 2007 will reach Grade IX in 2015. It is projected
that there would be about 22.76 million children of age '6' in year 2007. All
these children would require enrolling and 80 per cent of them would need to
retain till Grade IX (18.21 million). Under these assumptions, enrolment in
secondary classes is projected to be 36.42 million in year 2015. The underage
& overage children in Grade I (30.80 per cent), if considered will give an
enrolment of 47.63 million. This can be repeated to obtain enrolment in any
given year by which the goal of universal secondary education is achieved.
The available data suggests that the
goal of UPE has not yet been achieved in 2001. If this is so, then the goal of
universal secondary enrolment also, cannot be achieved at least by the year
2009. Even if the goal of UEE is achieved by 2010, the goal of universal
secondary enrolment can only be achieved in 2012. This implies that all upper
primary graduates will transit to the first grade of secondary level. They will
also retain in the system and complete Grade X. The existing pass percentages
across the country however do not suggest that it be achieved by 2012.
The summary of projections
is presented in Table 16.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
SSA envisages that the goal
of UPE will be achieved by 2007 and that of UEE in 2010. Keeping this in view,
a number of alternatives have been tried and enrolment in secondary classes was
projected. In addition, a few other alternatives were also tried. In the first
alternative secondary enrolment was projected on the basis of proportion of
Grade VIII to total upper primary enrolment by assuming that UPE will be
achieved in 2007. The enrolment in 2011 thus comes out to be 31.96 million
(GER, 73 per cent). A slightly improved transition rate will give a GER of 78
per cent. Under Alternative II, it is assumed that UEE would be achieved by
2010 and the existing transition rate from upper primary to secondary level and
share of Grade VIII to total
Table 16
Summary of Projections Under Different
Alternatives (In million)
|
Alternatives
|
Year
|
Projected
Population
14-16 Yrs.
|
Grade
IX
|
Grade
IX-X
|
Projected
Enrolment
Ratio
|
|
Alternative I: In Proportion of Grade
VIII to Total Upper Primary
Enrolment
Constant share of Grade VIII to total
upper primary enrolment (29.87 per cent) & improved transition from upper
primary to secondary level (90%) and UPE by 2007. Upper Primary Enrolment =
63.04 million, 2007
Constant share and constant
transition rate (84.89%) & UPE by 2007
Both the share of Grade VIII and
transition rate remain constant & UPE by 2001, Upper Primary Enrolment =
50.02 million, 2001 |
2011
2011
2005
|
43.61
43.61
45.76
|
16.95
15.98
12.68
|
33.90
31.96
25.36
|
77.73
73.29
55.42
|
|
Alternative II: UEE by 2010
(Population, 11-14 Years = 63.62 million)
With improved transition rate (90%)
& constant share (29.87%)
With constant transition rate (84.89
%) & constant share
Constant transition & improved
share (35%)
Improved transition & improved
share |
2012
2012
2012
2012
|
43.75
43.75
43.75
43.75
|
17.10
16.13
18.90
20.04
|
34.20
32.26
37.80
40.08
|
78.17
73.74
86.40
91.60
|
|
Alternative III: Rate of Growth
Method
MHRD Data: 1988-89 to 1998-99
(G.R, 4.10% Grades IX-X & 3.54%, Grade IX)
|
2005
2010
2015
|
45.76
43.97
42.24
|
12.20
14.51
17.27
|
23.49
28.72
35.11
|
51.33
65.32
82.12
|
|
NCERT: 1986-87 to 1993-94
(G.R, 4.06% Grades IX-X & 3.99%, Grade IX)
|
2005
2010
2015
|
45.76
43.97
42.24
|
12.97
15.77
18.44
|
23.58
28.77
33.74
|
51.53
65.43
79.88
|
|
Alternative IV: Grade IX in Relation
to Grade I Enrolment 8 years back (Projected Population Age ‘6’, 2003 = 23.52
million), % Overage/underage = 30.80 per cent
Constant
ratio of Grade IX to Grade I
37 %
Improved ratio of Grade IX to Grade
I
42%
47%
52%
|
2011
2012
2013
2014
|
43.61
43.75
42.93
42.24
|
11.38
12.92
14.46
16.00
|
22.76
25.84
28.92
32.00
|
52.19
59.06
67.37
75.76
|
|
Alternative V: Universalisation of
Secondary Education, if Achieved by 2015
Enrolment Ratio, 80%
Same as above but adjusted for
underage/overage children @30.80 per cent) |
2015
2015
|
42.24
42.24
|
18.21
23.81
|
36.42
47.63
|
86.22
112.46
|
|
Present Enrolment
|
1999
|
-
|
9.90
|
18.45
|
-
|
upper primary enrolment will remain constant. Under
this alternative, projected GER in 2012 comes out to be 74 per cent (32.26
million). If the
transition
rate improves to 90 per cent, the system will have even higher GER of about 78
per cent (34.20 million). However, keeping in view the present status of
educational development, out-of-school children & dropout rates do not
suggest that UPE and UEE will be achieved by 2007 and 2010. Therefore, by using
the most recent growth rates, enrolment in secondary classes is projected under
the Alternative III. However, present growth rates may not continue in years
that follow but they give reasonably good indication about the future size of
secondary enrolment. Under this alternative, enrolment in 2010 is projected to
be 29 million (GER, 65 per cent) and 35 million (GER, 82 per cent) in 2015. The
other most appropriate method that was attempted is Grade IX enrolment in
relation to Grade I enrolment eight years back. According to this, it is
projected that secondary classes would have at least 22.76 million enrolment in
2007. The ratio (Grade IX to I, 37 per cent), if improved each year by five
percentage points to 52 per cent in 2014 would give an enrolment of 32 million
(GER, 76 per cent) provided that the existing level of Grade I enrolment is
maintained in 2002. In case if Universal Secondary Education (GER, 80 per cent)
is achieved by 2015, enrolment is also projected accordingly (Alternative IV).
A GER of 80 per cent (36.43 million) in 2015 from now may not be an easy tack
to achieve especially keeping in view its present level i.e. 41 per cent.
The projections attempted
should be viewed in the light of assumptions made and period of data, which has
been used in making projections. The share of Grade VIII to total upper primary
enrolment and also transition from upper primary to secondary level is based
upon the provisional data, which may change as and when final set of data is
available. Projections beyond 15 years from now is not likely to remain valid,
especially keeping in view the year for which the latest enrolment data is
available and also the quality of data which is often questioned by the data
users. Needless to mention that once the latest set of population and enrolment
estimates are available, one has to re-look into the projections.
The projections clearly
reveals beyond doubt that goal of universal secondary enrolment is not likely
to be realized at least by the year 2015. The projected enrolment indicates
that enrolment in secondary classes in 2007 would be around 23 million. The system
would have about 32 million enrolment in 2012 and 35 million in 2015. All this
indicates a quantum jump in enrolment from its present level (18.45 million) in
years that follow. If realized, it would have serious implications on schooling
facilities that would be required in future.
Eventually, it will decide the future expansion and investment
priorities in the education sector. At present, secondary schools have an
average enrolment of 230. At this rate,
35 million enrolment would require an additional 88 thousand schools/sections
in 2015. An average of 5 teachers per school would require an additional 440
thousand secondary teachers in 2015. At the present per pupil cost of Rs. 2200,
35 million enrolment in secondary classes would require an investment of Rs.
7,700 crore in 2015. Needless to
mention that the above calculations are preliminary in nature but they
give enough indication about the size of investment that would be required in
future.
It is also
a misconception that universalisation of secondary education in India means a
GER ranging between 65-75 per cent. However, the projections attempted in the
present article clearly show that GER of 80 per cent is feasible. It may not be
difficult to achieve even if the existing transition rate and share of Grade
VIII to total upper primary enrolment is maintained. The existing transition
rates from primary to upper primary and upper primary to secondary levels are
high. Drop out rate between the upper primary grades is low and promotion rate from
Grade IX to X high. Universalisation of elementary education will further
improve transition rate; in that case a GER of more than 80 per cent is not
ruled out. The analysis presented further shows that upper primary education
system is more efficient than primary education system. The goal of universal
secondary education cannot be achieved unless the efficiency of primary
education system is improved. Without which even the goal of UEE cannot be
achieved. Once the goal of USE is achieved, only then one can think of
universalisation of senior secondary education (USSE), which is nowhere in the
picture. It is also observed that pass percentage from Grade X to XI is very
low, which do not suggest that goal of USSE is possible in the next 20-25
years. Within the senior secondary grades, however transition rate between
Grade XI to XII is quite high. The major areas of concern are (i) inefficient
status of primary education system (ii) large number of unserved habitations
and very low pass percentage from Grade X to XI (iii) comparatively low
participation of girls across educational levels; and (iv) very low attendance
rates especially in secondary classes. Without significant improvement, the
goal to achieve universal secondary education even cannot be dreamt.
REFERENCES
Mehta, Arun C. (1996): ‘Reliability of Educational
Data in the Context of NCERT Survey’. Journal of Educational Planning and
Administration, NIEPA, Volume X, No. 1, New Delhi.
Mehta, Arun C. (1998): Education for All in India-
Enrolment Projections. NIEPA and Vikas Publishing House, New Delhi.
Mehta, Arun C. (2002): Education for All in India
with Focus on Elementary Education: Current Status, Recent Initiatives and
Future Prospects. NIEPA Occasional Papers, No. 30, New Delhi.
MHRD (2000): Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan: A Peoples
Movement for Education for All, Draft Guidelines. New Delhi: Government of
India.
MHRD (2001): Selected Educational Statistics:
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NCERT (1992): Fifth All India Educational Survey
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an Educational Institutions in India: Its Level, Nature and Cost, 52nd
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New Delhi.
Report of the Secondary Education Commission:
1952-53, Ministry of Education, Government of India, 1953, New Delhi.
Varghese, N. V.
and Arun C. Mehta (1999): Universalisation of Upper Primary Education in India
– An Analysis of Present Status and Future Prospects. National Institute of
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