UNIVERSALISATION OF SECONDARY EDUCATION: CAN IT BE ACHIEVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE

ARUN C. MEHTA

Fellow

National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration (NIEPA)

17-B, Sri Aurobindo Marg, New Delhi -110016 (INDIA)

(E-mail: arunmehta@niepa.org) 

 

INTRODUCTION

 

Ever since the Constitution was adopted in 1950, the focus of educational programmes was concentrated on elementary education. Since the constitutional commitment is free and compulsory education to all children up to the age fourteen, all efforts were focused on achieving the goal of universal elementary education.  But despite significant progress in every sphere of elementary education, the goal to achieve universal elementary enrolment is still a far distant dream.  Within elementary education, primary education remained in the focus all through since the independence.  Even, the coverage of District Primary Education Programme (DPEP) is also limited to the primary level only.  However, it is upper primary education, which is now getting attention of the planners and policy makers.  The DPEP is now being extended to the upper primary level initially in the phase one 52 districts. Sporadic attempts have been made in the past to consider both primary and upper primary education as one component. The Bihar Education Project and the World Bank Uttar Pradesh Basic Education Project considered the entire elementary education as one unit.  The new initiative, namely the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) also envisages the entire elementary education as one component.  The Government recently constituted a task force on secondary education. Otherwise secondary education had never been in the focus and all the activities were concentrated on elementary education. Even there is now mention of Universalisation of Secondary Education.  

 

Like other levels of school education, a significant progress is also made in all spheres of secondary education. More than 84 per cent habitations in 1993-94 had a secondary school/section within a distance of 8 km as compared to 70 per cent within 5 km.  The number of unserved habitations declined from 21 per cent in 1986-87 to 15 per cent in 1993-94.  During 1950-51 to 1999-2000, number of secondary & higher secondary schools increased from 7 thousand to 117 thousand.  The increase (16 times) is much more rapid than the corresponding increase in primary (3 times) and upper primary (14 times) schools.   In the latest decade (1990 to 99), more than 37 thousand secondary & higher secondary schools were opened. The ratio of upper primary to secondary schools also improved from 1.83 in 1950-51 to 1.69 in 1999-2000. 

 

The number of secondary & higher secondary teachers increased from 127 thousand in 1950-51 to 1,720 thousand in 1999-2000.  Despite increase in number of teachers, pupil-teacher ratio increased from 21:1 in 1950-51 to 32:1 in 1999-2000; thus indicating significant increase in enrolment at this level.  From a low 1.5 million in 1950-51, it has now been increased by more than 19 times to 28.2 million in 1999-2000.  The percentage of girl’s enrolment during the same period increased from 13 per cent to about 38 per cent. Enrolment in secondary & higher secondary level increased by almost double the rate than the increase in primary enrolment.  The Gross Enrolment Ratio, though low but improved from 19.3 per cent in 1990-91 to 30.0 per cent in 1993-94 and further to 41.2 per cent in 1998-99.  Almost 50 per cent children of age group 14-17 years were attending schools in 1995-96.  Retention rate (I to IX) is also improved but still it is low at 27 per cent. Transition rate from upper primary to secondary level is as high as 83 per cent.

 

Like enrolment and teachers, facilities in secondary schools over time have also improved impressively.  The majority of secondary schools have now got school buildings (69 per cent). The average number of instructional rooms in a secondary school is as high as 8.  More schools have got drinking water (41 per cent), urinal  (77 per cent) and lavatory (57 per cent) facilities. More than 63 per cent schools have got furniture for teachers and almost the same percentage science laboratories.  The plan allocation on secondary education increased from Rs. 20 crore during the First Plan to more than Rs. 2,600 crore in the Ninth Plan. However, expenditure on secondary education always remained below one per cent of the GDP.

 

Like secondary level, impressive progress has also been made both at the primary and upper primary levels of education.  But despite all these significant achievements, the goal of universal elementary education (UEE) still remains far out of the sight without which the goal of universal secondary education also cannot be achieved. 

 

THE PRESENT ARTICLE

 

            An attempt has been made in the present article to project enrolment in secondary classes. By using five alternatives, enrolment in Grade IX and total secondary enrolment (Grades IX-X) has been projected up to the year 2015. The existing set of enrolment projections (Mehta, 1998 & Varghese & Mehta, 1999) have been extensively used in projecting secondary enrolment. Attempt has also been made to analyze implications of UEE on secondary education in terms of enrolment. Needless to mention that secondary education cannot be expanded unless upper primary education system sends adequate number of elementary graduates to the secondary level.  Once the students complete elementary education, they are expected to transit to secondary level. Attempt has also been made in the present article to see how students transact between secondary classes. For this purpose, transition rate from upper primary to secondary level and between secondary grades have been computed and analyzed.  Trends in enrolment from primary to secondary level are also analyzed for which a long time series is constructed. The following five alternatives have been used to project enrolment in secondary classes:

·         Alternative I: In Proportion of Grade VIII to total upper primary enrolment

·         Alternative II: UEE, if achieved by 2010

·         Alternative III: Based on past growth rates

·         Alternative IV: Grade IX enrolment in relation to enrolment in Grade I; and

·         Alternative V: Universal Secondary Enrolment, if achieved by 2015

THE DATA

 

Though the focus of the present article is on the secondary level, wherever necessary, information pertaining to lower levels, such as, upper primary and primary levels have also been presented and analyzed. However, analysis is confined only to the all-India level only. The analysis presented and projections undertaken in the present article are based on the publications of the NCERT and MHRD. Education in India and Selected Educational Statistics of the MHRD have been extensively utilized.  In addition, population projections provided by the Standing Committee of Experts on Population Projections have also been used in carrying out enrolment projections. Since the Standing Committee estimates are based on the population data up to the 1991 Census, the same needs revision. However, a cursory look at the projected and actual population for 2001 suggests that the same may not change significantly because the deviation noticed between the two estimates is not significant.

 

 

AGE-SPECIFIC CHILD POPULATION

 

The total population of India in 1991 was 846 million increased at an annual rate of 1.95 per cent to 1,027 million in 2001 (against projected 1,012 million).  A perusal of Table 1 reveals that irrespective of age group, population is likely to increase during the period 1991-2001.  However, the same trend may not continue during the following decade i.e. 2001-2011 as the population in age groups 6-11, 11-14 and 14-16 years would start decline.  However, population of age group 16-18 years is expected to increase marginally. The decline in population (6-11 years) indicates comparatively a lower clientele in 2011 than it was in 1991.  However, this may not minimize the unfinished task of universal enrolment, as upper primary enrolment depends on primary graduates and not on population of age group 11‑14 years.   This is also true for secondary enrolment, which depends on upper primary graduates and not on population of age group 14-16 years.

 

Table 1

Age-specific Child Population: 1991-2016

                                                                                                                                                       (Figures in Million)

Age-group

1991

2001

2011

2016

6-11

Boys

Girls

Total

 

60.31

56.40

116.71

 

60.42

57.84

118.26

 

56.04

53.09

109.13

 

59.47

56.33

115.80

11-14

Boys

Girls

Total

 

27.88

25.13

53.01

 

38.50

35.97

74.47

 

32.10

30.42

62.52

 

34.08

32.32

66.40

14-16

Boys

Girls

Total

 

19.52

16.68

36.20

 

24.74

22.53

47.27

 

22.27

21.34

43.61

 

21.87

20.68

42.51

16-18

Boys

Girls

Total

 

Total Population

 

14.71

12.99

27.70

 

846

 

23.50

20.95

44.45

 

1012

 

23.20

22.40

45.60

 

1179

 

21.26

20.12

41.38

 

1264

Source: Expert Committee on Population Projections as reported in the Selected Educational Statistics: 1999-2000, MHRD, Government of India, New Delhi, 2001.

 

During 1991-2001, child population (age group 6-11 years) might have increased at the rate of 0.13 per cent per annum (2001 Census figures are not yet available).  The lower rate is due to decline in birth rate during the same period.  During 2001 to 2011, population of age group 6-11 years is expected to decline at an annual rate of 0.80 per cent, all that supports a decline in the clientele population.  It is not only that population of age group 6-11 years (during 2001-2011) would decline but its share to total population is also expected to decline by more than 4.50 percentage points. Individually, age groups 6-11 and 11-14 years had 116.71 and 53.01 million population in 1991, which is 13.79 and 6.26 per cent of the total population is now likely to decline to 9.25 and 5.30 per cent in 2011.        

                                 

In 1991, there were about 1,670 million children of age group 6-14 years compared to 36.20 and 27.70 million respectively of the age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years.  It is estimated that there would be about 193 and 172 million children of age group 6-14 years respectively in the years 2001 and 2011. Age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years had 63.90 million children in 1991, which might have increased to 91.77 million in 2001 but likely to decline to 89.21 million in 2011. Individually, age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years would have an estimated population of 47.27 and 44.45 million in 2001 and 43.61 and 45.60 million in 2011. The percentage share of 14-16 and 16-18 years to total population, which was 4.28 and 3.27 per cent in 1991, projected to increase to 4.67 and 4.39 per cent in 2001 but decline to 3.70 and 3.86 per cent the following decade. This indicates a growth of 2.70 and 4.84 per cent per annum during 1991-2001 respectively in the age groups of 14-16 and 16-18 years.  The projected single age ‘6’ population is presented in Table 2.

 

Table 2

Projected Population, Age '6': 1991-2016

                                                                                                                      (Figures in Million)

Year

Boys

Girls

Total

1991

11.99

11.36

23.36

2001

12.13

11.76

23.89

2011

11.25

10.80

22.05

2016

11.94

11.46

23.39

                                     Note: Projected on the basis of share of age ‘6’ to total population (6-11 years)

                                     in  1991 and projected 6-11 population in different years.  

 

GROWTH IN ENROLMENT

 

Enrolment during 1950-51 to 1999-2000 at different levels of school education is presented in Table 3. A perusal of table reveals that irrespective of the level of education, enrolment has shown consistent and significant increase throughout the period 1950-51 to 1999-2000. This is also true for girl’s enrolment, which has increased at much faster rate than increase in boy’s enrolment. Enrolment at the primary level increased from 19.2 million in 1950-51 to 97.4 million in 1990-91 and further to 113.6 million in 1999-2000.  This shows that the same is increased by more than six times in a period of about fifty years. The girl’s enrolment during the same period increased from 5.4 million in 1950-51 to 49.5 million in 1999-2000. In percentage terms, share of girl’s enrolment increased from 28.13 per cent in 1950-51 to 41.48 per cent in 1991 and further to 43.58 per cent in 1999-2000. The share of girl’s enrolment at upper primary and high/higher secondary level increased from 16.13 to 40.38 per cent and 13.33 to 38.99 per cent during the same period.  In the latest decade (1991 to 2000), enrolment at the primary level increased at a rate of 1.72 per cent compared to 2.40 and 4.43 per cent increase in upper primary and high & higher secondary enrolment. 

 

Table 3

Growth in Enrolment: 1950-51 to 1999

                                                                                                                        (Figures in Million)                                                                                           

Year

Primary

Upper Primary

High/Hr. Secondary

 

Girls

Total

% Girls

Girls

Total

% Girls

Girls

Total

% Girls

1951

5.4

19.2

28.13

0.5

3.1

16.13

0.2

1.5

13.33

1961

11.4

35.0

32.57

1.6

6.7

23.88

0.7

3.4

20.59

1971

21.3

57.0

37.37

3.9

13.3

29.32

1.9

7.6

25.00

1981

28.5

73.8

38.62

6.8

20.7

32.85

3.4

11.0

30.91

1991

40.4

97.4

41.48

12.5

34.0

36.76

6.3

19.1

32.98

1998

48.2

110.9

43.46

16.3

40.3

40.45

10.5

27.8

37.77

1999

49.5

113.6

43.58

17.0

42.1

40.38

11.0

28.2

38.99

Rate of Growth

1951-1999

1991-2000

 

 

 

4.63

 

2.29

 

 

 

3.72

 

1.72

 

 

 

-

 

-

 

 

 

7.46

 

3.48

 

 

 

5.57

 

2.40

 

 

 

-

 

-

 

 

 

8.52

 

6.39

 

 

 

6.17

 

4.43

 

 

 

 

-

 

-

                             Source: Selected Educational Statistics: 1999-2000, MHRD, 2001. The author has calculated the growth rates

 

Compared to primary and upper primary levels, enrolment at the secondary & higher secondary level initially had a low enrolment base. In 1950-51, total enrolment in secondary & higher secondary classes was only 1.5 million of which girls constituted 13.33 per cent or 0.2 million in absolute terms.  During 1991-2000, the same increased at the rate of 4.43 per cent per annum, which is more than double the increase in upper primary enrolment. During 1950-51 to 1999-2000, girls and overall secondary & higher secondary enrolment increased by more than 55 and 19 times This shows average growth of 8.52 and 6.17 per cent per annum which is higher than the corresponding growth in enrolment at other levels of school education. 

 

Table 4

Gross Enrolment Ratio: 1950-51 to 1999-2000

Year

Primary

(Grades I-V, 6-11 Years)

Upper Primary

(Grades VI-VIII, 11-14 Years)

High/Hr. Secondary

(Grades IX-XII, 14-17 Years)

Boys

Girls

Total

Boys

Girls

Total

Total

1950-51

60.6