UNIVERSALISATION
OF SECONDARY EDUCATION: CAN IT BE ACHIEVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE
ARUN C. MEHTA
Fellow
National
Institute of Educational Planning and Administration (NIEPA)
17-B, Sri
Aurobindo Marg, New Delhi -110016 (INDIA)
(E-mail: arunmehta@niepa.org)
INTRODUCTION
Ever since the
Constitution was adopted in 1950, the focus of educational programmes was
concentrated on elementary education. Since the constitutional commitment is
free and compulsory education to all children up to the age fourteen, all
efforts were focused on achieving the goal of universal elementary
education. But despite significant
progress in every sphere of elementary education, the goal to achieve universal
elementary enrolment is still a far distant dream. Within elementary education, primary education remained in the
focus all through since the independence.
Even, the coverage of District Primary Education Programme (DPEP)
is also limited to the primary level only.
However, it is upper primary education, which is now getting attention
of the planners and policy makers. The
DPEP is now being extended to the upper primary level initially in the phase
one 52 districts. Sporadic attempts have been made in the past to consider both
primary and upper primary education as one component. The Bihar Education
Project and the World Bank Uttar Pradesh Basic Education Project considered
the entire elementary education as one unit.
The new initiative, namely the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) also
envisages the entire elementary education as one component. The Government recently constituted a task
force on secondary education. Otherwise secondary education had never been in
the focus and all the activities were concentrated on elementary education.
Even there is now mention of Universalisation of Secondary Education.
Like other levels of school education, a significant progress is also
made in all spheres of secondary education. More than 84 per cent habitations
in 1993-94 had a secondary school/section within a distance of 8 km as compared
to 70 per cent within 5 km. The number
of unserved habitations declined from 21 per cent in 1986-87 to 15 per cent in
1993-94. During 1950-51 to 1999-2000, number
of secondary & higher secondary schools increased from 7 thousand to 117 thousand. The increase (16 times) is much more rapid
than the corresponding increase in primary (3 times) and upper primary (14
times) schools. In the latest decade
(1990 to 99), more than 37 thousand secondary & higher secondary schools
were opened. The ratio of upper primary to secondary schools also improved from
1.83 in 1950-51 to 1.69 in 1999-2000.
The number of
secondary & higher secondary teachers increased from 127 thousand in
1950-51 to 1,720 thousand in 1999-2000.
Despite increase in number of teachers, pupil-teacher ratio increased
from 21:1 in 1950-51 to 32:1 in 1999-2000; thus indicating significant increase
in enrolment at this level. From a low
1.5 million in 1950-51, it has now been increased by more than 19 times to 28.2
million in 1999-2000. The percentage of
girl’s enrolment during the same period increased from 13 per cent to about 38
per cent. Enrolment in secondary & higher secondary level increased by
almost double the rate than the increase in primary enrolment. The Gross Enrolment Ratio, though low but
improved from 19.3 per cent in 1990-91 to 30.0 per cent in 1993-94 and further
to 41.2 per cent in 1998-99. Almost 50
per cent children of age group 14-17 years were attending schools in
1995-96. Retention rate (I to IX) is also
improved but still it is low at 27 per cent. Transition rate from upper primary
to secondary level is as high as 83 per cent.
Like
enrolment and teachers, facilities in secondary schools over time have also
improved impressively. The majority of
secondary schools have now got school buildings (69 per cent). The average
number of instructional rooms in a secondary school is as high as 8. More schools have got drinking water (41 per
cent), urinal (77 per cent) and
lavatory (57 per cent) facilities. More than 63 per cent schools have got
furniture for teachers and almost the same percentage science
laboratories. The plan allocation on
secondary education increased from Rs. 20 crore during the First Plan to more
than Rs. 2,600 crore in the Ninth Plan. However, expenditure on secondary
education always remained below one per cent of the GDP.
Like secondary
level, impressive progress has also been made both at the primary and upper
primary levels of education. But
despite all these significant achievements, the goal of universal elementary
education (UEE) still remains far out of the sight without which the goal of
universal secondary education also cannot be achieved.
THE PRESENT ARTICLE
An attempt has been made in
the present article to project enrolment in secondary classes. By using five
alternatives, enrolment in Grade IX and total secondary enrolment (Grades IX-X)
has been projected up to the year 2015. The existing set of enrolment
projections (Mehta, 1998 & Varghese & Mehta, 1999) have been extensively
used in projecting secondary enrolment. Attempt has also been made to analyze
implications of UEE on secondary education in terms of enrolment. Needless to
mention that secondary education cannot be expanded unless upper primary
education system sends adequate number of elementary graduates to the secondary
level. Once the students complete
elementary education, they are expected to transit to secondary level. Attempt
has also been made in the present article to see how students transact between
secondary classes. For this purpose, transition rate from upper primary to
secondary level and between secondary grades have been computed and
analyzed. Trends in enrolment from
primary to secondary level are also analyzed for which a long time series is
constructed. The following five alternatives have been used to project
enrolment in secondary classes:
|
·
Alternative I: In Proportion of Grade VIII to total upper
primary enrolment
·
Alternative II: UEE, if achieved by 2010
·
Alternative III: Based on past growth rates
·
Alternative IV: Grade IX enrolment in relation to enrolment in
Grade I; and
·
Alternative V: Universal Secondary Enrolment, if achieved by
2015 |
THE DATA
Though the
focus of the present article is on the secondary level, wherever necessary,
information pertaining to lower levels, such as, upper primary and primary
levels have also been presented and analyzed. However, analysis is confined
only to the all-India level only. The analysis presented and projections
undertaken in the present article are based on the publications of the NCERT
and MHRD. Education in India and Selected Educational Statistics of
the MHRD have been extensively utilized.
In addition, population projections provided by the Standing
Committee of Experts on Population Projections have also been used in
carrying out enrolment projections. Since the Standing Committee estimates are
based on the population data up to the 1991 Census, the same needs revision.
However, a cursory look at the projected and actual population for 2001 suggests
that the same may not change significantly because the deviation noticed
between the two estimates is not significant.
AGE-SPECIFIC CHILD POPULATION
The total
population of India in 1991 was 846 million increased at an annual rate of 1.95
per cent to 1,027 million in 2001 (against projected 1,012 million). A perusal of Table 1 reveals that
irrespective of age group, population is likely to increase during the period
1991-2001. However, the same trend may
not continue during the following decade i.e. 2001-2011 as the population in
age groups 6-11, 11-14 and 14-16 years would start decline. However, population of age group 16-18 years
is expected to increase marginally. The decline in population (6-11 years)
indicates comparatively a lower clientele in 2011 than it was in 1991. However, this may not minimize the
unfinished task of universal enrolment, as upper primary enrolment depends on
primary graduates and not on population of age group 11‑14 years. This is also true for secondary enrolment,
which depends on upper primary graduates and not on population of age group
14-16 years.
Table 1
Age-specific Child Population: 1991-2016
(Figures in Million)
|
Age-group |
1991 |
2001 |
2011 |
2016 |
|
6-11
Boys
Girls
Total |
60.31
56.40
116.71 |
60.42
57.84
118.26 |
56.04
53.09
109.13 |
59.47
56.33
115.80 |
|
11-14
Boys
Girls
Total |
27.88
25.13
53.01 |
38.50
35.97
74.47 |
32.10
30.42
62.52 |
34.08
32.32
66.40 |
|
14-16
Boys
Girls
Total |
19.52
16.68
36.20 |
24.74
22.53
47.27 |
22.27
21.34
43.61 |
21.87
20.68
42.51 |
|
16-18
Boys
Girls
Total
Total Population |
14.71
12.99
27.70
846
|
23.50
20.95
44.45
1012
|
23.20
22.40
45.60
1179
|
21.26
20.12
41.38
1264 |
Source:
Expert Committee on Population Projections as reported in the Selected
Educational Statistics: 1999-2000, MHRD, Government of India, New Delhi, 2001.
During 1991-2001, child
population (age group 6-11 years) might have increased at the rate of 0.13 per
cent per annum (2001 Census figures are not yet available). The lower rate is due to decline in birth
rate during the same period. During
2001 to 2011, population of age group 6-11 years is expected to decline at an
annual rate of 0.80 per cent, all that supports a decline in the clientele
population. It is not only that
population of age group 6-11 years (during 2001-2011) would decline but its
share to total population is also expected to decline by more than 4.50
percentage points. Individually, age groups 6-11 and 11-14 years had 116.71 and
53.01 million population in 1991, which is 13.79 and 6.26 per cent of the total
population is now likely to decline to 9.25 and 5.30 per cent in 2011.
In 1991, there were about
1,670 million children of age group 6-14 years compared to 36.20 and 27.70
million respectively of the age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years. It is estimated that there would be about
193 and 172 million children of age group 6-14 years respectively in the years
2001 and 2011. Age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years had 63.90 million children in
1991, which might have increased to 91.77 million in 2001 but likely to decline
to 89.21 million in 2011. Individually, age groups 14-16 and 16-18 years would have
an estimated population of 47.27 and 44.45 million in 2001 and 43.61 and 45.60
million in 2011. The percentage share of 14-16 and 16-18 years to total
population, which was 4.28 and 3.27 per cent in 1991, projected to increase to
4.67 and 4.39 per cent in 2001 but decline to 3.70 and 3.86 per cent the
following decade. This indicates a growth of 2.70 and 4.84 per cent per annum
during 1991-2001 respectively in the age groups of 14-16 and 16-18 years. The projected single age ‘6’ population is
presented in Table 2.
Table 2
Projected Population, Age '6':
1991-2016
(Figures in Million)
|
Year
|
Boys
|
Girls
|
Total
|
|
1991
|
11.99
|
11.36
|
23.36
|
|
2001
|
12.13
|
11.76
|
23.89
|
|
2011
|
11.25
|
10.80
|
22.05
|
|
2016
|
11.94
|
11.46
|
23.39
|
Note: Projected on the basis
of share of age ‘6’ to total population (6-11 years)
in 1991 and projected 6-11 population in different years.
GROWTH
IN ENROLMENT
Enrolment during 1950-51 to
1999-2000 at different levels of school education is presented in Table 3. A
perusal of table reveals that irrespective of the level of education, enrolment
has shown consistent and significant increase throughout the period 1950-51 to
1999-2000. This is also true for girl’s enrolment, which has increased at much
faster rate than increase in boy’s enrolment. Enrolment at the primary level
increased from 19.2 million in 1950-51 to 97.4 million in 1990-91 and further
to 113.6 million in 1999-2000. This
shows that the same is increased by more than six times in a period of about
fifty years. The girl’s enrolment during the same period increased from 5.4
million in 1950-51 to 49.5 million in 1999-2000. In percentage terms, share of
girl’s enrolment increased from 28.13 per cent in 1950-51
to 41.48 per cent in 1991
and further to 43.58 per cent in 1999-2000. The share of girl’s enrolment at
upper primary and high/higher secondary level increased from 16.13 to 40.38 per
cent and 13.33 to 38.99 per cent during the same period. In the latest decade (1991 to 2000), enrolment
at the primary
level
increased at a rate of 1.72 per cent compared to 2.40 and 4.43 per cent
increase in upper primary and high & higher secondary enrolment.
Table 3
Growth in Enrolment: 1950-51
to 1999
(Figures in Million)
|
Year
|
Primary
|
Upper
Primary |
High/Hr.
Secondary |
|
|
Girls |
Total |
% Girls |
Girls |
Total |
% Girls |
Girls |
Total |
% Girls |
|
1951 |
5.4 |
19.2 |
28.13 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
16.13 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
13.33 |
|
1961 |
11.4 |
35.0 |
32.57 |
1.6 |
6.7 |
23.88 |
0.7 |
3.4 |
20.59 |
|
1971 |
21.3 |
57.0 |
37.37 |
3.9 |
13.3 |
29.32 |
1.9 |
7.6 |
25.00 |
|
1981 |
28.5 |
73.8 |
38.62 |
6.8 |
20.7 |
32.85 |
3.4 |
11.0 |
30.91 |
|
1991 |
40.4 |
97.4 |
41.48 |
12.5 |
34.0 |
36.76 |
6.3 |
19.1 |
32.98 |
|
1998 |
48.2 |
110.9 |
43.46 |
16.3 |
40.3 |
40.45 |
10.5 |
27.8 |
37.77 |
|
1999 |
49.5 |
113.6 |
43.58 |
17.0 |
42.1 |
40.38 |
11.0 |
28.2 |
38.99 |
|
Rate of Growth
1951-1999
1991-2000 |
4.63
2.29 |
3.72
1.72 |
-
- |
7.46
3.48 |
5.57
2.40 |
-
- |
8.52
6.39 |
6.17
4.43
|
-
- |
Source: Selected Educational
Statistics: 1999-2000, MHRD, 2001. The author has calculated the growth rates
Compared to
primary and upper primary levels, enrolment at the secondary & higher
secondary level initially had a low enrolment base. In 1950-51, total enrolment
in secondary & higher secondary classes was only 1.5 million of which girls
constituted 13.33 per cent or 0.2 million in absolute terms. During 1991-2000, the same increased at the
rate of 4.43 per cent per annum, which is more than double the increase in
upper primary enrolment. During 1950-51 to 1999-2000, girls and overall
secondary & higher secondary enrolment increased by more than 55 and 19
times This shows average growth of 8.52 and 6.17 per cent per annum which is
higher than the corresponding growth in enrolment at other levels of school
education.
Table 4
Gross Enrolment Ratio: 1950-51 to 1999-2000
|
Year
|
Primary
(Grades
I-V, 6-11 Years) |
Upper
Primary
(Grades
VI-VIII, 11-14 Years) |
High/Hr.
Secondary
(Grades
IX-XII, 14-17 Years) |
|
Boys |
Girls |
Total |
Boys |
Girls |
Total |
Total |
|
1950-51 |
60.6 |
|